Two party California, both parties Democratic?
From the Editors | Shades of Blue Within The Golden State | Issue 17 | July 11, 2022
From seemingly pure red Texas to pivotally purple Georgia and now onto big blue California… The Purple Principle continues to explore state level political and social polarization in our podcasts and this issue of the Purple Principle in Print focusing on our most populous and powerful state – economically, culturally, and perhaps, politically, too.
Within our recent Texas series, we learned that a remarkably small percentage of Republican primary voters in a low turnout state determine the direction and the directors of Texas politics and policy. That is, 4% of Texans, who represent the tipping point in the GOP primaries, have an outsized influence on the Lone Star State, which has been GOP controlled for two decades and counting.
Is a similar if opposite case of minority rule at work in highly blue California, where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans two to one and most indies lean left as well?
The answer to that question from both TPP podcast guests and our own research is mostly no, but a little bit yes.
Yes, Democrats rule in this state: they send two Democratic Senators and the nation’s largest number of Democratic House Members to Washington. And primary turnout is below the national average.
But a small percentage of Democratic primary voters do not rule California as Republicans in Texas due to an open and unified primary system, which creates more competitive general elections with a higher percentage of voters determining office holders. Again, one of the great polarizing factors in American politics is the low number of primary voters, and the tendency for those voters to be more extreme.
In combination with this open primary structure, the vastness and diversity of the state has created two distinct and highly competitive factions within the Democratic party: one more progressive, the other more pragmatic and moderate. This split runs along geographic and economic lines – progressives on the affluent coast, moderates in the less affluent interior, as seen in this map version of the 2016 Presidential vote:
This plays out in factional battles within the California legislature where moderates (known as the “Mod Squad”) are accused by progressives of being in the pocket of corporations and in the way of major legislative efforts:
Primary Results Through A Factional Lens
Our first California podcast guest, Dan Schnur, a Republican turned Independent, stated that California is a two party state, “it’s just that both parties happen to be Democratic.”
Which sounds like a joke yet is largely true and only funny because it defies our long held expectations that all elections come down to Democrat vs. Republican. California is one of the few places in the country where that is not always the case.
In the LA Mayor’s election, for one notable example, Democrat Karen Bass will face Democrat (if also recent Republican) Rick Caruso, the latter running primarily on crime related issues. And there are four US House races in Southern California where Democrats will face off in the fall. In some but not all cases, these battles will pit a more moderate vs a more progressive candidate. And similar battles will also play out in general election contests for the State Assembly. In that sense California is becoming a one party, two faction polity.
In a rare occurrence, there will also be a Republican vs. Republican race in November 2022. Two California State Assembly incumbents, Tom Lackey and Thurston Smith, have been drawn into the same District (34), representing areas north of Palm Springs and southeast of Bakersfield.
TPP podcast guest, Gustavo Arellano, an LA Times columnist and podcast host, is cautionary about simple interpretations of this year’s 2022 primary results. “If we say, okay, this is a repudiation by the California electorate angry about crime,” Arellano asks, “Then why did a progressive prosecutor win in Alameda county?”
Arellano further cautions about alarmism over rising crime. “ Look, I’m not gonna lie and say numbers are not up. They are up in some categories but.. nowhere near the numbers of the eighties and nineties,” he points out. “But now that they’re happening a little bit on the westside of Los Angeles and in luxury boutiques in San Francisco, Oh my God, California’s going to hell in a way that it’s never never gone to hell before. Give me a freaking break.”
California Finale Podcast Guests
For our California series podcast finale, TPP sought out three informed perspectives representing each of the two major parties in Leon Panetta (D) and Kristin Olsen [R] but also the independent political satirist, Andrew Heaton, author of Los Angeles is Hideous: Poems About an Ugly City.
Leon Panetta, best known as a cabinet member in both the Clinton and Obama administrations, was a nine-term Democratic member of Congress from northern California prior to joining the executive branch. Although a lifelong Democrat, Panetta bemoans the loss of bipartisanship in both Washington and Sacramento while maintaining that the best public policy arises from a broad base of viewpoints:
“And if you want California to continue to be a state that grows in the future, you’ve gotta take into consideration a lot of the views of business, the views of obviously workers, the views of those who have major elements in our economy. The important thing about California is, we’ve had a diverse economy – that’s one of our great strengths, because we’re a diverse people.”
“We’ve had entertainment. We’ve had Silicon Valley. We’ve had tourism, we’ve had agriculture. This is a state that really has a strong, diverse economy. That’s been important to California. And it’s something that we need to protect for the future.”
Kristin Olsen, former CA Assembly Minority Leader & Assembly Member (12th District, GOP)
Also featured in our finale is Kristin Olsen, one of the founders of the New Way California, an effort to form a California GOP distinct from the divisive policies and rhetoric endorsed by the national GOP.
“New Way California started with the premise that a healthy democracy really requires two or more robust, healthy political parties,” recalls Olsen. “We need people from different perspectives, different ideologies, sitting around a table, talking about their different opinions on a particular public policy matter so that the ultimate solution is a better solution that serves a greater number of people.”
— Kristin Olsen
Though endorsed by former moderate GOP Governor Schwarzenneger (and former GOP Presidential candidate John Kasich), New Way failed to gain traction with a large number of donors and voters after its 2018 launch. Tune into our California finale for Olsen’s analysis of obstacles faced by NewWay and any third party effort in our deeply entrenched two party system.
Though endorsed by former moderate GOP Governor Schwarzenneger (and former GOP Presidential candidate John Kasich), New Way failed to gain traction with a large number of donors and voters after its 2018 launch. Tune into our California finale for Olsen’s analysis of obstacles faced by NewWay and any third party effort in our deeply entrenched two party system.
Andrew Heaton: Satirist, Comedian, Podcaster, Author and Critic of CA Zoning Laws
A former Congressional Staffer, Heaton was briefly an LA resident before moving to the most LA-like part of Texas, Austin. “I think the zoning laws are real bad in California and, and I think they actually are directly related to why Los Angeles is so horrible, because all of these old, racist laws that were put in place that forced the city to grow out rather than grow up.”
That said, there are aspects about his former domicile of which Heaton is a fan. “California has open primaries, which I think is brilliant,” he tells TPP.. “I would love for more states to do that. I think that that would do quite a lot in terms of mitigating the polarization we’re seeing right now. I would expand it to four or five— top five in the open primary, like Alaska, but all the same.
Indies Fare Poorly in 2022 One Party, Two Faction Primaries
Heaton’s notion of expanding California’s top two voting to the top four system now in place in Alaska might eventually help independent and third party candidates get more traction in the golden state. But in the 2022 primaries under the current system indy candidates had disappointing results at the state level.
San Fransicko author Michael Shellenberger tallied only 3% in the Governor’s race that was dominated by incumbent Democrat Gavin Newsom. And the more experienced NPP candidate for Attorney General, Ann Marie Schubert, the current Sacramento County District Attorney, fielded less than 8%, significantly below two less experienced Republican rivals.
TPP guest and USC professor Dan Schnur thinks it’s no accident the two major parties came up with a label for independent candidates that confuses and puts off voters. Former state assembly minority leader Kristin Olsen also spoke to us about the steep challenges faced by No Party Preference (NPP) candidates.
For a comprehensive summary of California’s primary results, see this analysis by Politico.
Some Deep Blue Political Context
Democratic factionalism may prevent the most myopic of policy making. But does one party rule ever produce great policy? Back in 2019, California was ranked the 47th overall bipartisan state by the Lugar Center. It will be interesting to see how and if that ranking and state policy changes course after the 2022 general elections.
Democratic factionalism may prevent the most myopic of policy making. But does one party rule ever produce great policy? Back in 2019, California was ranked the 47th overall bipartisan state by the Lugar Center. It will be interesting to see how and if that ranking and state policy changes course after the 2022 general elections.
Some Deep Blue Economic Context
A litany of related economic concerns underlie the 2022 primary and general election campaigns and results, including income inequality, housing affordability and homelessness. But taxation and possible capital flight, in the form of business owners relocating to less heavily taxed and regulated states, are also at issue.
California has the 4th highest inequality rating of the 50 states based on the widely used Gini coefficient, which shows the differential between the top and lower 1/5th of incomes
The COVID pandemic has further widened the gap between rich and poor while making the optics more visible. That seems to make the case to maintain or increase the progressive income tax structure that supports the state’s budget and provides social services. But David Shulman, senior economist emeritus for the UCLA Anderson Forecast, reports that about 1% of California taxpayers pay half the state income tax, warning that increasing the taxes on the wealthy could reach a tipping point and thus a fiscal backfire.
Or has that tipping point arrived? Oracle and Hewlett Packard Enterprise have both announced they will be moving their HQs to Texas, following in the footsteps of Elon Musk’s Tesla and others. In fact, the Texas economy has surged to second place behind California in economic growth over the past two decades.
The result of these economic trends has been movement both out of and within the state toward more affordable areas. The noted author and geographer, Joel Kotkin, spoke to this trend in our TPP interview. Of particular note is the trend of minorities moving away from coastal cities to interior areas due to the high cost of living.
There is also credible research suggesting movement out of the state is largely fueled by housing cost differentials, such as between California and Texas, a net outflow that has increased in recent years. But is that temporary phenomenon driven by COVID, economic recession and remote working trends? Or is this an enduring trend as long as the cost of living in the Golden State remains above that of neighboring states with job opportunities? The first few years more fully beyond COVID may tell if California, an economic magnet for so many decades, has permanently or temporarily lost some luster.
Partners In Purple: Non-Partisan Media, Research & Analysis
- Public Policy Institute of California PPIC is a nonprofit, nonpartisan think tank. Their mission is to inform and improve public policy in California through independent, objective, nonpartisan research.
- Independent Voter Project IVP seeks to re-engage nonpartisan voters and promote nonpartisan election reform through initiatives, litigation, and voter education. IVP is best known for authoring California’s successful nonpartisan primary.
- The Schwarzenegger Institute at USC The USC Schwarzenegger Institute for State and Global Policy is committed to advancing post-partisanship, where leaders put people over political parties and work together to find the best ideas and solutions to benefit the people they serve. The Institute seeks to influence public policy and public debate in finding solutions to the serious challenges we face.
- Berkeley Center for Economics and Politics This research center conducts and disseminates cutting-edge research on the science of good governance, and trains leaders to implement reforms and evaluate impact.
