Less Partisan Elections in Alaska 2022?

[Archival Audio, Lisa Murkowski]

Robert Pease (Co-Host)

That’s the moderate GOP Senator Lisa Murkowski on the Alaska campaign trail recently. Back in 2010 she won reelection to the Senate as a write-in candidate. Now, in 2022, Murkowski’s the only one of the seven GOP senators who voted to convict Donald Trump after the January 6th insurrection who is running for reelection. As a result, Trump visited Anchorage recently to rally the MAGA faithful against her.

[Archival Audio, Donald Trump]

Robert Pease (Co-Host)

Does that pose a huge challenge to Murkowki’s re-election? It might. But then again, Alaska is different in every way possible. In its size, its distance from Washington, and its politics. Only 24% of Alaskan voters are registered Republican, 13% registered Democrats, and 58%, highest in the nation, are registered nonpartisans.

[Archival Audio, Bill Walker]

Robert Pease (Co-Host)

And that’s former Alaska Governor Bill Walker, the last independent governor in the US from 2014 to 2018. But maybe the next one as well. He’s running again this year as an Independent and polling competitively against the incumbent GOP governor Mike Dunleavy.

Alaska has long been distinctive in its politics and elected officials. Now in 2022, Alaska is different, right down to the way it votes, as explained by the Anchorage Daily News and the Juneau public television station, KTOO.

[Archival Audio, KTOO]

Robert Pease (Co-Host)

Having passed Ballot Measure Two in 2020, Alaskans go to the polls this month to vote in an open unified primary, with all candidates from all parties on a single list and then, in November’s general election, voters will be asked to rank the top four choices that emerge from that primary. It’s the first time in the nation that this method of final four voting will take place, combining open primaries with ranked choice voting. I’m Robert Pease, and this is Purple Principle, a podcast about the perils of polarization, visiting our least partisan state this episode with the help of Reporter & Producer Dylan Nicholls. Dylan, great to have you with us.

Dylan Nicholls (Reporter)

Happy to be here, Rob. And to share a bit of insight into Alaska. It’s a really fascinating place.

Robert Pease (Co-Host)

And you’ve done three very different interviews for this episode, including with Alaska Public Media’s Liz Ruskin on this first in the nation’s final four voting system.

Dylan Nicholls (Reporter)

We’ll be hearing from Liz about final four voting and the fact that it may not be as moderating a force as we thought – like in the race for Alaska’s single US House seat.

Liz Ruskin

So, but I don’t hear anybody saying, oh, make me your number two. Begich is going after Palin and calling her a quitter because she was governor and left before her term was finished. So there’s been a bit of nastiness between the two candidates that are most similar to each other.

Robert Pease (Co-Host)

And you also spoke to a member of the Alaska House of Representatives, Calvin Schrage, an independent running for re-election also on a final four voting ballot.

Dylan Nicholls (Reporter)

Calvin’s a first term independent house member from Anchorage. He’ll tell us about the challenges of legislating and campaigning as an independent.

Calvin Schrage

I was getting lots of advice and lots of encouragement that you need to pick a party. You need to have that base of supporters if you’re gonna run a successful campaign. And when it came to that decision, I just said, you know, I’ve never been a part of a party. I don’t wanna subscribe or pigeonhole myself into a certain set of values. It’s not about what one party or the other thinks. It’s about what’s right for my state and my community.

Robert Pease (Co-Host)

And we’re going to get a wider angle viewpoint on Alaskan society and political culture.

Dylan Nicholls (Reporter)

Yes, that’s from Brendan Jones, the Alaska-based novelist. People may have seen his column in the New York Times this spring on the indieness of Alaskans and why that could work to the advantage of candidates like Senator Murkowski, Bill Walker, or Calvin Schrage for that matter.

Robert Pease (Co-Host)

A lot is going on in Alaska this election, with major battles for Senator, Governor, and their single US House seat. Let’s kick things off with Dylan’s question for Brendan Jones on whether it’s just plain easier to talk politics in much less partisan Alaska.

Brendan Jones

I would say yes. I would say absolutely. You know, people aren’t Republicans or Democrats; they’re fishing buddies or they’re volunteer firemen, and of course that happens in small towns across America, but on the island where I live, you can’t run off to a suburb. Because if you run off, you’ll get eaten by a bear. That’s just what happens, cuz it’s just outside of town. And that’s just kind of the situation on the island. So I think being reasonable is a survival tactic. And of course in Alaska, survival is a huge thing. This idea of self-reliance and extreme circumstances, being reasonable is right up there with learning how to light a fire, making sure you have enough calories to survive.

Dylan Nicholls (Reporter)

We spoke a while ago with Governor Bill Walker, and he was talking about what he saw in terms of the independent unaffiliated voter population in Alaska.

Bill Walker

I think it is growing. I think of that independent non-partisan, I think it’s a right leaning – quite honestly, I don’t know the exact percentages – but I would guess it’s a right leaning group. I think that Ted Stevens, Senator Stevens, said it well when he would say, the hell with politics, just do what’s best for Alaska. That’s kinda like the Alaska that’s progressed over the years.

Dylan Nicholls (Reporter)

Do you see Alaska sort of resisting the trend of polarization that’s happening in the lower 48? Do you see what Bill Walker was predicting, a growth in independents that’s been continued and sustained?

Brendan Jones

I do very much see that. And it’s pleasing to hear Governor Walker say that especially, as an independent governor of a state. I mean, listen, 57% of people in the state are independents. It’s more than half. And you know, people really pride themselves on calling their own shots. And I would make the argument that that’s much more in keeping with the American style of government as created by Washington and Madison and Adams. And this idea of Adams worrying that the division of America the republic into two great parties is the worst thing that could ever happen. I think that that’s 100% true. And I do think that Alaska, if there is any alternative, Alaska and the way we’re voting provides a really good alternative.

Dylan Nicholls (Reporter)

You wrote a piece in June for the New York Times. And if I can quote you in that, you said “Alaska has a rich tradition of rewarding candidates who stand up to powerful figures like Mr. Trump.” Can you talk a little bit about this history and whether or not that might ring true in this election cycle?

Brendan Jones

Yeah, I mean, listen, the state takes great pride in thinking independently and doing its own thing and bucking trends that are established in the lower 48. I mean, let’s just move right on to Lisa Murkowski. I mean, she was appointed to the state by her father in a move that really created a lot of rancor throughout the state. But then she really proved herself in 2010 with this crazy, totally insane write-in candidacy.

She lost in the Republican primary to this kinda Sarah Palin protege, this Tea Party candidate named Joe Miller and the GOP, the national GOP, stepped away from her very decidedly. And initially, if I recall correctly, she was gonna run as a libertarian, but the libertarian had just said that he wouldn’t step off the ballot. And so after some thinking, after talking with a bunch of folks, she said, you know, screw it. I’m gonna run as a write-in candidate.

And she had her constituency, her voters just write in her name, and lo and behold, this won her the election. And I think it did two things. It really established her as a bona fide candidate. Instead of just being appointed by your father in 2002, it gave her a lot of confidence. And I think it really validated her in the eyes of Alaskans. And it also just really made her believe that she was okay bucking the GOP. I think there’s a certain amount of bitterness that remains.

Dylan Nicholls (Reporter)

Does the new open primary system and ranked choice voting system that Alaska has adopted since Alaska ballot measure two, which we did a previous episode on, was passed by Alaskan voters, does that new system give candidates like Murkowski, who buck the party line and buck some of the most powerful personalities in the party, a better chance of getting Alaskan support?

Brendan Jones

I think that it gives her a shot because it’s creating consensus for somebody instead of just saying, you know, first person pass the goal post. I think a lot of people are gonna settle for Lisa. And that’s largely because of the personal relationships she’s built over the years. Tshibaka has largely been criticized for being a carpetbagger, which I kind of think she is, she’s just arrived in the state, took a quick job and now is running. I mean, that was always the idea that she would run. Murkowski, on the other hand, has consistently done what she thinks is right for the state.

Robert Pease (Co-Host)

That’s Alaska-based novelist and commercial fisherman Brendan Jones and his viewpoint that Senator Lisa Murkowksi, despite MAGA efforts against her, may have a chance of surviving politically in this very survivalist state.

Dylan Nicholls (Reporter)

And also an important point there that ranked choice voting may favor Murkowski, because if she’s not the #1 pick for some Democratic voters staying with the Democratic candidate, she will likely be the #2 choice ahead of other candidates.

Robert Pease (Co-Host)

And Murkowski, while still caucusing with the GOP, can be a de facto independent vote in Washington, like a Joe Manchin or a Krysten Sinema on some issues. For example, she crossed the aisle to vote with Democrats on COVID relief, infrastructure, and background checks.

Dylan Nicholls (Reporter)

Yeah, as Brendan Jones mentioned, Alaskans really value individualism, which explains on a broad level why independents and indie-minded candidates fare better there than most other states. Take Bill Walker for instance, former independent governor of Alaska, now running again, who we’ve spoken to in the past.

Bill Walker

I remember I was sworn in on December 1st. I think on December 8th, I was in the Oval Office with President Obama and about four or five other governors and had just been elected on that cycle. And President Obama looked at me, he said, you’re the independent. I said, I am. He said, you were very fortunate to be that – we all wish we could be that in some respect, rather than all this partisan stuff. So that was my first inkling that there was something special about being a nonpartisan.

Robert Pease (Co-Host)

Special and incredibly rare. Out of 7,400 elected officials in the US today, only about two dozen are pure independents without party affiliation. That’s how much parties control our politics. So let’s hear from one of these special few independent legislators in the US, Alaska House Representative Calvin Schrage, interviewed by Dylan Nicholls.

Calvin Schrage

I ran two years ago and now represent house district 25, which is becoming house district 12 through redistricting. I bought the family home in 2017 that I grew up in; I’m doing home repairs on the holes that my brothers and I put in the wall and all that sort of thing. I learned to ride my bike just right here in the neighborhood, went to local schools – Ablo Elementary and Service high school – and stayed in state for college.

Dylan Nicholls (Reporter)

In Season One, we actually spoke to State House Rep Laura Sibilia from Vermont, and she’s an independent in a very similar position to you. She echoed a lot of your comments, too. We’d like to play you a clip from her interview.

Laura Sibilia

I don’t have a platform. In fact, I basically refuse to have a platform. There are issues that I’m gonna put forward from my constituents. There are issues, you know, when other people put forward issues and that we have to vote on them, my platform is, I’m gonna look at that and understand it and, you know, ask all kinds of questions and then vote the way that I think is best.

Calvin Schrage

You know, what she said really resonates in a lot of ways. I mean, what she said about taking things issue by issue is a hundred percent on brand with the way I approach things in the legislature. At the same time, I will say that my community expects me to advocate on some issues. My community really expects me to advocate for education. Like I said, I grew up in my district, Abbott Loop elementary is the school I went to. My wife and I, we’re trying to start a family right now. And if I send my kids to Abbott Loop elementary today, they’re gonna get a worse education than they got 25 years ago.

And I will say that, although I don’t have the party infrastructure behind me because I’m a nonpartisan, what I can do is build coalitions and I can say, I’m an education advocate.

And our platforms align on this: education advocates, let’s work together. I can add a vote, add my voice, add some rationale and some reason, and my personal experience, my lived experience in my district, and you can add your party infrastructure and some of that research and those assets to help really move the ball on this issue.

Dylan Nicholls (Reporter)

One issue that seems to me to be a driving factor in Alaska politics, and behind some of the proposed cuts in the last few years for the different services you’re talking about is the permanent fund dividend. A lot of folks, especially Republicans, have campaigned on expanding that dividend, which is hugely impactful to Alaskans and puts more money directly in their pockets. It started in 1976 as a fairly bipartisan effort, but since then Democrats have adopted a climate agenda, and they also support different social services that land on the chopping block the larger the PFD payment gets. Has this become more of a partisan issue these days, and how does that affect your work in the state house?

Calvin Schrage

I think that it has become one, but it shouldn’t be one. Much of our success in Alaska is, frankly, the result of oil revenue and funds from the federal government. And in recent years, we have seen that the only replacement for oil revenue that comes close to being able to meet the needs of the state of Alaska is the investment earnings that comes off the permanent fund, which goes back 40 years and was created as a result of oil revenues that were saved for the future, for that permanent fund. I think that in politics, things are always easier when you have cover, when you have a team that’s voting with you. And I think that the difficult decisions around the dividend have forced people to find cover and force people into very tight teams and it’s become very partisan and those teams have happened to follow along political lines, because I think that’s naturally where we see those team allegiances come from. But it shouldn’t be a partisan issue because the ramifications of the choices we make will affect all of us, regardless of party, forever in Alaska. And if we damage that fund, whether you’re a Republican or a Democrat, or you want a big dividend or a small dividend, or you want lots of state services or no state services, those things will be impacted severely, and you won’t be able to do any of it.

Dylan Nicholls (Reporter)

This year, Alaskans will cast their votes in a new open primary and ranked choice voting system. We’re speaking before Alaska’s primary on August 16th, but have you seen any impact in the way candidates are campaigning as a result of the ballot measure, and what kind of long term impact do you think this could have on partisanship and polarization in the state?

Calvin Schrage

It’s hard to extrapolate out what the long term impact is going to be. We’ve had hiccups. I think we’ve also had some already positive results from it. Speaking of hiccups, I think there’s some confusion. I think that we have candidates out there saying, just rank one, don’t rank the other candidates, which if you look at ranked choice voting, that that’s a bad strategy that actually disadvantages your own voters and their ability to influence the outcome of the election. I think there are some gains though. I mean, we’re about to have a primary. I can tell you for a fact today that in just about every one of the races, we’re not going to see good centrist candidates knocked out in a hyperpartisan primary because we did pass this voter initiative two years ago.

I think this is probably the way forward. I mean, I look at the primary results that are just starting to come out from this year’s primaries in the lower 48. And you see the exact same problems we’ve been talking about with primaries. These hyperpartisan folks who run to the extreme to get the votes of a very small minority of voters, who then have the rest of the voters, have to choose from two extreme candidates on the general election ballot of which neither really represents the majority of voters. That’s a problem.

Robert Pease (Co-Host)

We just spoke with Calvin Schrage, independent legislator from Alaska’s state house. He thinks there’s the possibility that final four voting can help moderate polarizing primaries in Alaska this election, and possibly in other states that may eventually adopt this reform.

Dylan Nicholls (Reporter)

And the new voting system will certainly be under a lot of scrutiny. Former Governor Bill Walker speculated with us on this shortly after Ballot Measure Two was passed back in 2020.

Bill Walker

The country is watching us a bit to see how this fares, because Maine has something similar and other states have something similar, too. Washington has a top two run off. So there’s some dabbling around the country and other methods of the election process. So I think there’s going to be a lot of focus on Alaska to see if there’s a proof of concept on this method.

Dylan Nicholls (Reporter)

To get a clearer picture on final four voting, I interviewed Liz Ruskin of Alaska Public Media. She really understands this system and how it combines open primaries with ranked choice voting.

Robert Pease (Co-Host)

That’s awesome. We all need some help with this. So let’s get into it with Liz Ruskin on final four voting and the campaign dynamics she’s observed so far.

Liz Ruskin

Right. One of the biggest changes that – it didn’t seem that way at the time– but one of the biggest changes is that we went to a nonpartisan jungle primary, or as they’re calling it here, the Tundra primary. All the attention was focused on what happens in the general, which is ranked choice voting. So our new primary is, everybody on the same ballot and the top four advance to the general. And then in the general, voters can rank candidates 1, 2, 3, and 4. And if no one gets 50% in the first round, then the fourth place finisher is removed and those ballots are reallocated according to the voter’s second choice. And that might happen another round until we get to two people. And then the candidate with the most votes wins.

And we’re finding some just really unusual scenarios that we weren’t anticipating. And that is that Democrats and liberals were generally more favorable to ranked choice voting than conservatives. And yet we are finding that we’ve got two conservatives on the ballot and one Democrat; two Republicans and one Democrat. And what we’re finding is that the Democrats are just really reluctant to rank one or the other their number two. Like, they know they want the Democrat for their number one. And they just cannot bring themselves, even as people who say, look, I supported ranked choice voting, why should I give my vote to one of these conservatives that I don’t like either one of ’em. And it really feels like we’re asking them to part with some small part of their soul to vote for, to rank one of the conservatives there.

Number two, the conservatives – you may have heard of one of ’em, herr name is Sarah Palin. And the other is named Nick Begich, and the Begich family’s very well known here, except that all the other Begiches that are known are Democrats.

Dylan Nicholls (Reporter)

And earlier in the race, actually right after the special primary in June to determine who was going to fill Don Young’s seat for the remainder of his term, Al Gross, who had a lot of success being an independent candidate in that race and got 12% of that vote, I believe he ended up dropping out. So now going into the primary that will help decide which four candidates advance in the general election. It’s not clear at all where his vote will go, where that 12% will gravitate in terms of the candidates. Will it disperse among the top three candidates we have so far – Begich, Palin, and Peltola, or is there another independent candidate that independents are likely to coalesce around?

Liz Ruskin

You know, one of the things that we’ve found is that party labels mean so much less now. It’s really just a kind of branding. And he had chosen the independent label, but he was very much aligned with the Democrats when he ran for US Senate two years ago. So it would seem that Mary Peltola would pick up most of the Gross vote. She a very moderate Democrat.

Dylan Nicholls (Reporter)

So on August 16 we’ll enter the rank choice voting portion of the special congressional election to serve the remainder of Don Young’s term. You’re saying it seems likely that most of Al Gross’s votes will go to Mary Peltola. So what kind of dynamic can we expect to see between Palin, Begich, and Peltola as the rank choice voting rounds progress?

Liz Ruskin

So the Democrat is likely to come on top after the first round of counting because she’s likely to get about 40% of the vote, because Democrats tend to pick up that much. And then the two conservatives will likely split the 60%. So it’ll be 30-30-40 or something along those lines. And then they’re not going to implement the ranked choice part of it until all the ballots arrive by mail.

And there’s 15 days where that can happen. So ballots will continue to arrive at the division of elections for 15 days. And during those 15 days, you know, conservatives who didn’t like ranked choice voting will find themselves in the surprising position of saying, yeah, yeah, I know it looks like the Democrat won, but just wait until those second ballots kick in. The two conservatives, you know, they’ve recognized that what they really have to do is beat the other conservative, the game number one has to be for them, I don’t wanna finish third. So there’s been a bit of nastiness between the two candidates that are most similar to each other.

But in Sarah Palin’s case, you know, it is likely that a lot of people are just gonna vote for one. A lot of the conservatives that I’m hearing from are saying, I’m not going for this ranked choice voting. I’m just gonna vote for one, which they’re calling bullet voting. I don’t know where that term exactly came from, but bullet voting is just voting for one. And well, if everyone did that, it’s likely the Democrat would win.

Dylan Nicholls (Reporter)

So looking at the Senate race then, through this ranked choice voting lens, Alaskans are deciding whether incumbent Republican Lisa Murkowski gets to keep her Senate seat. And some recent polling has shown that Murkowski trails that Trump-endorsed Kelly Shibaka by about eight or nine points. They were both followed in a recent poll by Democrat Pat Chesboro.

Is it a similar dynamic to the congressional campaign, and that the Republicans are sort of doing it out to prove to voters who’s the most Republican? Is anyone trying to court moderates in that campaign? How does that look?

Liz Ruskin

Well, you know, what I’m really finding is that a lot of Democrats and liberals in Alaska are saying, why don’t we just vote for Murkowski since that’s who’s more realistic and they’re kind of weighing, what does that mean in ranked choice voting? And some are saying, it doesn’t matter, just vote Democrat because you’re a Democrat and you wanna support Democrats, vote the Democrat one, and Murkowski two, and other folks are saying, no, just vote Murkowski one, because we don’t want to undermine the faith in the results of the election. And also if Murkowski were to win 51% or 50% plus one vote in the first round of voting, there would be no ranked choice. She would just win.

Robert Pease (Co-Host)

That was Liz Ruskin from Alaska Public Media explaining some of the dynamics she’s seen so far in this first ever final four voting election campaign in Alaska. And Dylan, what were your major takeaways from these interviews?

Dylan Nicholls (Reporter)

My main takeaway is that there are a lot of questions we hope to answer on our next Alaska episode after the primary results are in. Like what will final four voting do for voter turnout, which is typically quite low for primaries? Will voters understand the process? And will that process help or hurt some of the more independent candidates, like moderate GOP Senator Murkowski, like Bill Walker running again as an independent candidate for Governor, and like our guest Calvin Schrage, running for reelection as an independent member of the Alaskan House?

Robert Pease (Co-Host)

More to come then on very purple and very indie Alaska next time on the Purple Principle. Thanks to all our guests today and to Dylan for these great discussions. For those interested in the genesis of final four voting in Alaska, we suggest you listen back to our original 2020 episode with the campaign manager for that ballot measure, Shea Siegert.

Shea Siegert

Its genesis was, how are we going to provide the best election system to the Alaska voter? How are we going to provide Alaska voters with the most voice, the most choice, and the most power? And we found that open primaries and ranked choice voting and financial disclosure was that way.

Robert Pease (Co-Host)

For more detail on how Alaskans are voting this election check out our explanatory cartoon created by digital guru, Emily Holloway. You can find that on the page for this episode at purpleprinciple.com or click the link in our show notes.

And note that a very close cousin of Alaska’s final four voting called final five voting, will be a ballot measure in Nevada in November. We’ll be watching to see what effects are felt there from Alaska’s attempt to depolarize our elections. Special thanks to all our Alaska guests this episode and to Dylan Nicholls for some great reporting. This Robert Pease for the whole Purple Principle team, with original music by Ryan Adair Rooney. The Purple Principle is a Fluent Knowledge Production.